Tesla has been riding a huge wave of success recently. Their stock is soaring, they achieved their fourth straight quarter of profitability for the first time ever, they released the Model Y ahead of schedule, and they are building a Cybertruck factory in Texas. But they have a bit of an interesting $20 million problem lingering over their heads. Or is it actually their secret advantage? Let’s talk about it.
Nearly three years ago in 2017 Tesla announced their next generation fully electric supercar. The 2020 Roadster will be the quickest car in the world – hold on, wait, I said 2020 didn’t I? Well, we are entering the last quarter of 2020 and still no Roadster. This is not new information by any means. Here’s what Elon told Joe Rogan earlier this year. But by far the question I get asked the most by friends and family is: Andy, when are you getting your Roadsters? And it seems like my answer is that my Roadsters are always perpetually two years away no matter what year it is. So first of all, you may be wondering: how am I getting multiple Roadsters (plural)? Well, that brings us into Tesla’s conundrum.
See, Tesla has something that really no other car company has: an internal referral program that provides every Tesla owner with their own unique referral link to share with others, and if someone orders a Tesla using a referral link, both people get 1,000 free Supercharging miles. Cool, right? But the referrer gets an additional perk which is a chance to win a brand new Tesla vehicle. If you didn’t know, I’ve been Tesla’s top referrer since 2018, and through the referral program I have won two upcoming Tesla Roadsters, and the crazy thing is I’m not the only one getting free Roadsters. In fact, Tesla is supposedly giving away over 80 free Roadsters through the referral program. But these aren’t just the plain old base Roadsters – no – these are Founders Series Roadsters that cost $250,000 each, and Tesla said they’re only producing 1,000 of these founders series roadsters. This comes to a total of $20,000,000 worth of vehicles that Tesla is giving away soon. But more interesting is it may be even more than $20,000,000. To see if this is a curse or a genius strategy, let’s take a look at how we got here.
Tesla first launched the referral program in 2015, and since then it has gone through several different iterations. Back in 2018 when I got my Model 3 the program was in Phase 9 and in that phase Tesla was offering some awesome prizes for referrals such as a kid size Model S, priority access to software updates, unique performance wheels, and an invite to a future Tesla event – all of which I received. But Tesla also did something pretty unheard of during phase 9 – they announced “Secret Levels” which could be unlocked after getting 5 referrals. These secret levels offered some even more incredible prizes such as experiences like attending a SpaceX rocket launch which I was lucky enough to do last year. But even as amazing as that was, the most exciting secret level prize was the ability to win discounts on an upcoming Founders Series Roadster. 10 referrals unlocked a 10% discount with the ability to get a 100% discount after hitting 55 referrals. But it gets even crazier. I emailed the Tesla referral program in November 2018 when I hit 55 referrals and in their response they said: “If you earn more than 55 you begin working towards your second Roadster in the same fashion.”
So Tesla was not only giving away discounts for one Roadster but two Roadsters which is a $500,000 value per person. In December 2018 I became the top referrer and not too long after that, the head of the referral program left Tesla, and around that same time Elon announced that they were officially ending the referral program as a cost cutting measure. Here’s where it gets interesting. When phase 9 of the program “ended” on Feb 2nd 2019 there were roughly 80 Roadsters claimed to be won for free. However, those 80 do not include the dozens of people who likely won a 90% or more discount off a Roadster. Or what about the dozens or more people who won anywhere from 50-85% discounts? How many of those people will buy a Founders Series Roadster? Since Tesla is only producing 1,000 of these how many will be sold at the full retail price after honoring all the discounts? Seems like the number of people buying at full price could be relatively small.
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So are these free Roadsters that are worth millions of dollars of unseen revenue a big problem for Tesla? Some people think so. But what if it’s actually their secret advantage? If we look at this from a different perspective we know that giving away a $250,000 Roadster does not mean it’s an actual $250,000 expense for Tesla. Giving away a Roadster essentially has two costs for Tesla: the actual cost of producing the car which should hopefully be much less than $250,000 and the opportunity cost of giving away a car that someone else possibly would have purchased at full price.
I also found something interesting as I was researching for this video. The official Tesla Referral program page states the following about the Roadster discounts: “Discount off the base price will be displayed in the Loot Box. Discounts will expire one year after the Roadster becomes available for order.” The key phrase there is “discount off the BASE price”. It also stated this in the official secret level loot box page back when it was first appearing where it said “the ability to purchase a founders series Roadster at a discount off the BASE price.” The word base keeps showing up. If we visit the Tesla Roadster page you can see it says the base price is $200,000. So does this mean Tesla will only offer discounts up to $200,000 off and possibly require the winners to pay the remaining $50,000 for the founders series? That would at least bring in some money that they missed out on compared to giving it away completely for free. Or do they mean “base price” as in the full $250,000 but not including any add-ons like Full Self Driving, paint color, upgrades, etc. Nobody knows, not even me.
So by now you may think Tesla was crazy for giving away millions of dollars worth of Roadsters for free. But Tesla is smart. They know that most of these free Roadsters are going into the hands of some of the most influential owners including Tesla focused YouTubers like myself or Ben Sullins all the way up to huge YouTubers like Marques Brownlee, and of course other content creators such as bloggers and podcasters. My buddy Ryan from Ride the Lightning podcast and Trevor from Tesla Owners Online are also among the few who have won two Roadsters. Tesla also knows that some of these people who won Roadsters may have violated the program rules so they have the right to say “Sorry John Doe, you posted your referral link in your social media bio so you’re disqualified”. So I’m assuming not all of these 80 Roadsters will actually be given away, especially due to some of the winners also not being able to afford the income taxes required to take delivery of such an expensive car. I think I’ll owe at least $150,000 just in taxes alone to get both of my Roadsters.
Overall, I think the Roadster is Tesla’s marketing ploy and it has been from the beginning. Tesla spends $0 on traditional advertising while other car manufacturers like General Motors spent nearly 3 billion dollars on advertising in the United States alone last year. Tesla is making a bet that their 20 million dollar Roadster giveaways will be a better investment than billions of dollars spent on traditional advertising. They know the Roadsters in the hands of influential content creators will draw a ton of attention to Tesla as a brand and thus increase people’s interest in possibly buying one of the “normal” Tesla vehicles. It’s like having a restaurant with a famous dessert. People come for the dessert, but end up spending the most money on appetizers, entrees, and tips. If you don’t believe me think about why Tesla brought back the referral program last year merely weeks after shutting it down. They published a blog post announcing the rebirth of the program saying: Customer referrals have been a key part of our growth, helping Model 3 become the best-selling electric vehicle in the world. While our previous Referral Program was very successful, it came with significant costs and ending the program last year allowed us to pass those savings along to customers. We’ve since restructured the program to save the company money while also offering exclusive rewards such as a chance to win a Founder’s Series Model Y monthly and a Founder’s series Roadster supercar quarterly, both signed by Elon Musk and Franz von Holzhausen.”
And since bringing the program back, Tesla has added Model Y to the program and increased the incentive for solar referrals. Tesla obviously knows something about the referral program that we don’t. They had the program for years, then they ended it, then they brought it back again and are still giving away free cars. There’s someone at Tesla who has proven to Elon, or maybe it’s Elon himself that knows the referral program is worth it – worth it enough to bring it back from the dead after promising to give away millions of dollars worth of Roadster discounts. Since the program was brought back in 2019 there have been roughly 30,000 more referrals that have taken place according to a website that tracks stats about Tesla referrals. It’s especially important in this day and age for a company to have some sort of unique advantage. I think Tesla’s referral program seems to be one of theirs.
Unfortunately even I, the top referrer in the world, have no information about when the roadsters will be delivered. I’m personally guessing it will be sometime in 2022 because 2021 will be the year of the Cybertruck. What do you think about the Tesla Referral program? Do you think it’s a problem or is it a good idea? Let me know in the comments below.
Teslas are considered luxury vehicles and are relatively expensive, so right now is probably not a good time to buy one. Or is it? Some crazy things are happening in our economy right now. People are losing jobs, stock market’s crashing, so this is going to sound like first world problems, but it’s relevant to my channel and it begs the question: is it dumb to buy a Tesla during a pandemic or possible recession?
First of all, disclaimer: I’m not a financial expert. None of this is legal advice. Nobody knows if a recession will even happen. We could be back to normal in a few weeks or things could get worse. But in this video I want to talk about the pros and cons if you’re thinking about buying a Tesla during uncertain times like these.
First and foremost make sure you have the budget to afford a Tesla. There’s never a good time to buy a Tesla just for the sake of flexing on fools ok? To see if a car is within your budget you should follow these three rules: put down at least 20 percent, finance the car for no more than 4 years, and keep your total monthly car payment at or below 10 percent of your gross monthly income. For example: the Model Y I have on order is right around $60,000 so according to these rules I should put down at least $12,000 cash, and then get a loan for the other $48,000 which should be no longer than a 48 month loan which puts the monthly payment right around $1,000 per month. That means for me to afford this particular Model Y my monthly income should be at least $10,000. So it’s super important to make sure your monthly budget allows for the car payment, and if an emergency happens where you lose your income for a while you want to make sure your emergency fund can cover your car payment. Do those calculations for yourself and if you can’t make it work, try to find a cheaper vehicle that fits your budget if you absolutely need one right now.
Buying a new car means you’re buying a depreciating asset. We all know that as soon as you drive a new car off the lot, it decreases in value by thousands of dollars which is why a new car is usually frowned upon when it comes to personal finance. However, Teslas do seem to keep their value pretty well. According to a study by automotive research firm iSeeCars, the average one-year-old used car costs 20 percent less than its new version. However, some models have as little as a 5 percent difference and after analyzing over 6 million cars it identified the Tesla Model 3 as the best car to buy new. According to Kelly Blue Book, the Model X has the best electric vehicle resale value for 2020 with a predicted resale value of 44% after 5 years of ownership. Last year, Elon tweeted that when Tesla’s ride sharing network comes online all Tesla vehicles with the Full Self Driving option will actually become appreciating assets that increase in value. That’s obviously extremely far fetched, but if and when that does happen it will allow a Tesla to potentially make money for the owner which is a feature that does differentiate Teslas from other cars and is a factor to consider when deciding to buy a car.
But you don’t always need to get a new Tesla. The good news is right now with the Model Y coming out there are many people selling their Model 3’s which are only 2 years old at the most so you may be able to save some money by finding a used Model 3 if that fits your lifestyle. Don’t plan on buying mine though because like I’ve said before, the Model 3 is the best car I’ve ever driven and I plan to keep it for at least 10 years. The Model Y I have on order is mostly for my wife.
If you are adamant on buying a car during a pandemic or potential recession, I highly recommend you plan to keep the car for as long as possible. The good news is that Tesla is probably the most forward thinking car company right now. They build their cars with the long term future in mind by giving their cars all the hardware capabilities that they think it needs to be able to fully drive itself when the software and regulations reach that point, which is something that no other car company is doing on the level that Tesla is.
If you decide you want a new Tesla during these times it’s possible that auto loan interest rates will be super low right now. However the rates can change at anytime and will depend on your own personal situation so it’s best to shop around and get multiple quotes from different sources to find the best rate for you if you plan to finance. I guess a potential downside of buying a Tesla is that sometimes during hard financial times for car companies you can negotiate a good deal with a dealership that’s trying to sell off their inventory. With Tesla, they don’t have dealerships which I actually love, but that means you won’t be negotiating the price with Tesla. They prefer to set prices and allow you to purchase it anytime online. I personally think that is still way better than having to go to a dealership to buy.
Also, as with any electric vehicle, buying a Tesla means you’ll never buy gas again, and Tesla likes to show you the potential gas savings when you go to purchase one of their cars online. During the first year and a half of driving my Model 3 I saved nearly $3,000 in fuel alone. Also no more oil changes which is another added savings over the lifetime of the car. Plus during a crazy time like this, not having to go to gas stations is actually really nice. Even though gas prices are super cheap right now, the price can change any minute. You don’t want to be affected by how careless and evil that industry is, trust me. And if you’re practicing social distancing, driving an electric vehicle like a Tesla is so much better because it charges at home overnight while you sleep. No stopping at gas stations so no risking yourself or others or having to touch a gas pump that is most likely loaded with germs. Sounds petty but it’s true.
Also during this unique situation, food delivery services like Uber Eats and Post Mates have surged so you could make some money while helping people out, and with a Tesla you could do it without having to pay for gas and while being way less harmful to the environment. Plus whenever Tesla’s robo-taxi network becomes a reality in the future if something like this happens again you could send your Tesla out by itself with no human inside while you practice self distancing at home and watch more of my YouTube videos hopefully.
Teslas are also some of the safest cars in the world which should in theory help reduce your car insurance bill especially now that Tesla is starting to offer insurance directly to their owners at seemingly good prices. Right now, anything that gives you a chance to lower your bills is pretty crucial.
I guess a potential downside to buying a Tesla is that they are the youngest car manufacturer out of all the major car companies so they may have a tougher time ramping up production through all this. However, it turns out that this might actually help them take a breather from trying to frantically deliver cars and instead fix bottlenecks and optimize their workflow at their factory, something they probably couldn’t have focused on if they were at 100% full speed production ramp. I think their biggest struggle will be making sure their service centers and mobile technicians are prepared for the increase in Tesla ownership throughout the country with the deliveries of the Model Y. Service is definitely something to consider when purchasing a car for the long term. I’ve owned a Model 3 for two years and so far the service has been minimal but we’ll see how it continues. I also believe that this pandemic will lead to people wanting to live a more “green” and healthy lifestyle, and when people do that it may lead to more people getting interested in Teslas and going solar which will in turn help Tesla succeed in the long run.
So is it dumb to buy a Tesla right now? Well, if you absolutely need a car, if you can afford it even if you lose your job temporarily, and if you plan to keep it for a long time then no it’s absolutely not dumb in my opinion. In fact if all of those things apply to you it’s probably smart to buy a Tesla given everything we talked about.
I’m still planning to go through with my Model Y purchase as of now. I’m patiently waiting for Tesla to notify me of my delivery date. Stay tuned and subscribe so you don’t miss my upcoming videos. I hope you’re doing well through all this. Stay safe and best of luck with your decision. Let me know what you’re planning to do in the comments below. Thank you for watching. My name is Andy, and I’ll talk to you in the next one.
1,000 Model 3’s at an average of $50,000 = $50 MILLION revenue for Tesla. I’m so glad people chose to buy a Model 3 and go all-electric after watching my videos. Here’s to the next 1,000 and beyond!
2008: I first hear of Tesla Motors & the original Roadster.
2012: Tesla Model S starts shipping & making the news. I was fascinated by all the tech but it was way out of my price range.
2014: Model S cartoon makes me officially decide that my next car would be the affordable mass-market Tesla.
March 2016: I upload my first ever Tesla video when I traveled to Cincinnati to reserve my Model 3. That video got the most views within 24 hours than any of my videos up to that point.
May 2017: I create a video for the Tesla Project Loveday contest. Even though it got a lot of positive feedback I was heartbroken when I wasn’t one of the finalists.
Feb 28 2018: I upload my “First Impressions of the Model 3” video after traveling hundreds of miles & paying $300 to rent one. I immediately fell in love with the car.
Apr 30 2018: I take delivery of my Tesla Model 3. I did not have a referral code of my own at this time.
May 11 2018: After Tesla starts enabling referral codes for Model 3 owners, I create my Genius link but at the time the code only applied to Model S & X purchases.
Jun 24 2018: I upload my full Model 3 review video which eventually becomes the #1 result on YouTube for “Tesla Model 3 Review”. However, I never mentioned my referral code in the video. It was only in the description.
Aug 1 2018: Tesla enables referral codes to be applied to Performance Model 3 orders along with Model S & X.
Sep 6 2018: I upload my “True Cost of a Tesla Model 3” video which eventually becomes one of my most popular videos.
Oct 7 2018: I upload my “Tesla Model 3 Uber/Lyft” video which goes semi-viral after Elon likes it on Twitter & Tesla tweets it. Around this time I notice that I’ve gotten a handful of referrals.
Oct 19 2018: Tesla makes all vehicle orders eligible for referrals so I start mentioning my code in all my Model 3 videos from then on.
Nov 11 2018: I upload my “Tesla Model 3 Buyers Guide” video. At that time the referral program was set to end on Dec 10 so I had less than a month to get over 30 referrals in order to reach 55 referrals which was the amount needed to win 100% discount on one future Tesla Roadster. This was also when Tesla was urging people to order their Model 3 by the end of November to lock in the full tax credit. This skyrocketed my referrals.
Nov 15 2018: I upload a video about how my Model 3 handles cold weather conditions.
Nov 16 2018: I hit 55 referrals to win my first Roadster.
Nov 25 2018: I release my Model 3 Road Trip video. By this time, Tesla was strongly pushing Model 3 sales and this is when my referrals went crazy – multiple per day. I surpassed 105 referrals which was the amount needed to win a 2nd Roadster.
So how did my small amount of Model 3 videos lead to roughly $17,000,000 revenue for Tesla? I think it came down to these main things:
Value & Unique Perspective: Producing high quality content for a specific audience it in a unique way.
Passion & Timing: I’ve been passionate about Tesla for years even before I got my Model 3. My videos mixed with the increasing popularity & excitement of the Model 3 along with Tesla’s biggest sales push due to the federal tax credit ending – it all happened at the perfect time for me as a referrer.
Experience & Strategy: The strategy I used to create my Tesla videos that led to 300 referrals is the same strategy I’ve used for years to create my other product review videos: provide value to a target audience and give them a call to action.
Why is Tesla ending the referral program? I personally think Tesla couldn’t afford to keep giving away free Supercharging to each referral. What do you think?
Big thanks to Tesla for the referral program and big thanks to all who used my code! I’m very fortunate to have participated & end with the most Tesla referrals in the world. It’s been a heck of a ride, and I can’t wait to continue to refer people to Tesla & EV’s in general.
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