The Apple Car is coming, but how will it affect Tesla?
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For years there have been rumors of Apple working on a secret electric car project codenamed Titan, and now it seems to be very real and coming way sooner than expected. To say the least I’m really excited for this because on this channel I love talking about Tesla products and Apple products so the Apple car is something I cannot wait to experience and share with you but first let’s talk about the breaking news surrounding this and what we know so far about the Apple car.
The first reports of Apple’s plans for their own car date back to 2008 with Steve Jobs. But after Jobs passed away it seemed to have been put aside for bigger priorities. But in 2015 Apple supposedly had a large number of employees working on Project Titan and were even offering incentives for Tesla employees to join Apple. Some people never thought Apple would make their own car, but it does make sense because over the past decade Apple has put itself in a position to dominate the mobile market, and what is more mobile than a car? Especially a self-driving car. Well, a bird, a scooter, shut up. In 2017, Tim Cook said Apple was focusing on autonomous systems but not necessarily leading to an actual Apple car. This seems like the most logical theory because if you didn’t know by now, for a non-automotive company, producing a car is hard. Scaling the production of a car is very hard. Scaling the production of an all-electric car with batteries is nearly impossible. It took Tesla years and years and were on the brink of bankruptcy a couple of different times. What Tesla did is something that is not easily replicated. But if there’s any company who can make a decent attempt, it’s Apple. In 2018, Apple registered 27 self-driving vehicles in California and a year later, they acquired an autonomous vehicle startup called Drive.ai.
When it comes to the most powerful companies in the world, Apple is near the top of that list. As of September 2020 Apple is the second most valuable company according to their market capitalization, and they are loaded with cash – especially after selling $550 headphones. Even with what many people call “overpriced” products, Apple still seems to dominate the mass market when it comes to phones and tablets and now they’ve made a huge statement in the tech world with their first ever in-house system on a chip called the M1 which has made a lot of believers out of people who doubted Apple’s price for performance. Apple has also proven that they are experts at vertical integration meaning they control a lot of the hardware and software themselves which results in higher margins and more refined products. They make a ton of money by selling a wide variety of products AND services.
However, another tech company has been making its way onto Apple’s heels in terms of market domination, and that company is of course, Blackberry. Ok no it’s actually Tesla. This week Tesla was the biggest company ever to join the S&P 500. Tesla shares have also surged 70% since the news was announced in November, skyrocketing the company’s market value to over $620 billion. Tesla is currently the sixth-largest publicly listed firm in the US by that measure, and similar to Apple, Tesla is focused on vertical integration by trying to master the art of an in-house supply chain. Tesla has integrated many production steps from battery production to electric motor production and full self-driving software. In simple terms, vertical integration brings part of the production process in-house instead of outsourcing.
Apple wants to do the exact same thing and is already doing it for certain products. But they want to do it for an electric car too. Not sure if you could tell by now but Apple seems like the type of company that wants to be the best at whatever they’re doing. They want to beat Tesla at their own game. The question is can they do it? And if they can do it, when will it happen? Last week a report claimed that Apple is working with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on a self-driving chip technology, and both companies have plans for a factory to produce “Apple Car” chips in the US. And this week there was a leaked report from an unnamed director at a major Taiwanese manufacturer claiming that Apple is ahead of schedule on their electric car and expects to release the Apple Car in September 2021. Well, that’s certainly news. According to a supply chain Apple recently pushed forward stocking requirements to certain Taiwanese auto parts factories, and the secret prototype has already been tested on the roads in California. The Taiwan-based media outlet also added that the “Apple Car model is similar to Tesla,” but didn’t explain what that exactly means.
That report seems a bit unbelievable because that timeline is way sooner than everyone expected, especially since Apple has never publicly confirmed a car. But just yesterday a more reputable report from two people working closely on this effort said that Apple has progressed enough that it now aims to build a mass market passenger vehicle and is moving forward with self-driving technology with a target of 2024. The Apple Car will also feature its own breakthrough battery technology that could radically reduce the cost of batteries and increase the vehicle’s range, according to a third person who has seen Apple’s battery design.
This kind of battery technology breakthrough may sound familiar if you saw Tesla’s Battery Day in September where they announced their upcoming 4680 tab-less cells which will result in much more affordable, longer lasting, and faster charging electric vehicle batteries. Tesla’s new battery production is set to be in full motion by 2022 so Apple will need to prove themselves in that area when the Apple Car is released. According to a source, Apple plans to use a unique “monocell” design that bulks up the individual cells in the battery and frees up space inside the pack by eliminating pouches and modules that hold battery materials. This design means that more active material can be packed inside the battery, giving the car a potentially longer range. Apple is also examining a chemistry for the battery called LFP, or lithium iron phosphate, which is inherently less likely to overheat and is thus safer than other types of lithium-ion batteries.
It’s still unknown how Apple will produce an actual car, but many expect the company to rely on a manufacturing partner to help build vehicles. And there is still a chance that Apple doesn’t produce their own car but instead just focuses on creating an autonomous driving system that would be licensed to cars made by other manufacturers. For the self driving aspect, Apple has partners for certain elements, including LIDAR sensors. LIDAR stands for Light Detection and Ranging, and it’s a remote sensing method that uses light in the form of a pulsed laser to measure distances that would give self-driving cars a 3D view of the road. The Apple car might even feature multiple LIDAR sensors for scanning different distances, with some of the sensors derived from Apple’s own in-house LIDAR units that are already in the iPhone 12 Pro and iPad Pro.
All of this is very exciting news, but what can we realistically expect from an Apple car? Well, as with Tesla’s history we all know producing mass market electric vehicles at a profit takes a long time and a lot of hard work. As with many of their existing products, Apple may try to price their electric car at a higher price point possibly in the luxury price range so they can shoot for a low volume, high price similar to the original Tesla Roadster or Model S. For the Apple car to actually come out in 2021 would be nearly impossible in my opinion unless Apple partners with another automative company to produce the cars. It may even make sense for Apple to try to partner with Lucid Motors who has already announced the most premium luxurious electric vehicle coming in 2021. Lucid’s specifications and high quality craftsmanship seem to be on par with what Apple offers with their products. However, I’m not sure that will happen given the short time frame and the fact that I think Lucid wouldn’t want to take the back seat (no pun intended) to Apple as Lucid seems pretty set on being a leader themselves in the luxury EV space.
I think it’s more likely that Apple does indeed wait until 2024 to release the Apple Car, and here’s why: By then it won’t be unreasonable to expect a more fully fledged self driving car. And I think Apple is focused heavily on the self driving aspect of the car. The more simplified the car production process can be, the easier Apple can get the car to production scale. And what better way to simplify it than if the car is built to be self driving in the first place. But in 2024 the biggest elephant in the room will be Tesla. By that time Tesla should have the best battery technology in any electric vehicle with costs down, production ramped, and range maximized. Not only that, Tesla is years ahead of Apple at being a successful electric vehicle company. Tesla will also have a much more affordable electric vehicle on the market by then: the $25,000 Tesla model that they announced at Battery Day. So it’s expected that Tesla will have the major upper hand by then so it would behoove Apple to get their car done sooner rather than later, and hopefully they can beat the $25,000 Tesla to the market.
But when the Apple car does come and even if it is priced in the luxury category, which I think it will be, it will undoubtedly be an absolute game changer. We’re talking about possibly the world’s most valuable company with deep pockets producing and selling a self driving electric vehicle in the next few years. Apple has shown that they have some of the best engineers in the world especially with the recent success of their M1 chip, and they have one huge advantage over Tesla: advertising. Apple not only knows how to market and sell, but they actually spend a large amount of money on advertising while Tesla does not. This doesn’t mean Tesla won’t change that by the time Apple car comes out, but either way I think this is a win win for everyone. Apple would be doing a disservice by NOT producing an electric self driving vehicle. It’s a step forward to a greener and safer world which I think massive companies like Apple should focus more on anyway. They will no doubt make the Apple car an attractive, high quality product with progressive technology and probably the best software in a car. And with all the millions of people who are already in the Apple ecosystem and especially the kids who grew up entirely on Apple products, an Apple car would honestly be a top choice for them. The possibilities with this car are endless: Apple has a huge App Store, it has people paying subscriptions, and what if you could get Apple Care instead of insurance for the Apple car? That would be cool right? Also Apple could instantly add a Car app into the next iOS release so that millions of people overnight get it on their phone. And if you’re concerned about the charging infrastructure, Elon this week already said that the Tesla Supercharger network is open to other EVs. Who knows? Maybe Apple will take Tesla up on that offer and be compatible with Tesla Superchargers. Let’s just hope Apple doesn’t design the charging for the car like they did for the Magic Mouse. I think this will lead to many more people interested in, but more importantly, adopting electric vehicles which after all is what Tesla’s mission is.
What do you think of the Apple Car? Let me know in the comments below. I am really excited to see what Apple comes up with, and I will definitely be reviewing it on this channel so hit subscribe if you want to see that in the future. My name is Andy. Thank you for watching, and I’ll talk to you in the next one.